The Impact of Elections in the West on Africa

When President William Ruto of Kenya made a state visit to the United States in May 2024, some saw it as sign of the US’s continued active engagement with sub -Sahara Africa.

The reality is much more nuanced particularly as that was the first visit by an African leader in more than 15 years. Ironically, the last time a US head of State touched African soil was when Barack Obama, the first African American US President, paid a visit to his father’s homeland of Kenya in 2015.

While it is not only state visits that define engagement, (US VICE President Kamala Hariss did visit several African countries last year) there is no getting away from the fact that the region has not been top of the agenda in many western nations. Little has been said about Sub-Sahara Africa in the US election campaigns so far. Of particular note for many Africans has been confirmation of the Biden administration’s recent plans for a 6 per cent cut in funding of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the 21-year-old programme credited with saving millions of lives in Africa. The US earned more kudos from this Bush era programme than many other initiatives.

The region hardly featured in the election campaigns of former colonial powers France and the United Kingdom. In the United Kingdom, the defeated Conservative administration had expressed a desire to solidify trade relationships with African countries in the post-Brexit era. However, under the party’s recent leadership, much of the spotlight was focused on its heavily-touted Rwanda policy to transfer illegal immigrants to the East African country. Now that Labour is in government, it has declared those plans "dead and buried", though we are yet to see the details of its proposed Border Security Command. It is perhaps not surprising that there has been little to see or hear from France on Africa after its humiliating retreat from Niger and the Sahel in 2023, as its long-cherished relationship with the region known as “Francafrique” was left in tatters. With the turmoil created by President Macron's decision to call snap Parliamentary elections, resulting in a three-way standoff, the country’s foreign policy direction is likely to remain unclear until a new Government can be formed.

The European Union has continued its engagement with the region though it remains characterised by mixed signals. Earlier this year France, Germany and the EU made a cut of around 6 per cent per annum in long-term development and climate funding, much of which had been destined for Africa. Yet just weeks later, the EU launched new regional programmes boosting youth mobility and skills in Africa with the Commissioner for International Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen saying: “Education and skills are key to combating inequalities and to creating jobs and prosperity.”

While Africa waits to see what sort of engagement it will have with the western world, its attention has been focused on battling rising debt levels and the cost-of-living crisis triggered by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. At the end of June, Gen-Z led protests in Kenya against new taxes designed to help with the country’s debt burden and increased cost of living left 22 dead and scores injured. The President decided against signing the Finance bill with the measures and instead called for new measures. There are fears that similar protest may be seen elsewhere on the Continent.

While relations with traditional partners still important to African countries, their importance and impact has been gradually waning as countries increasingly look to their growing trade and business links with China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and India to name but a few. The continent’s traditional business partners may well have to compete with new friends.