Political update: June 1 results from presidential election in Poland

Karol Nawrocki backed by the key opposition party PiS (Law and Justice) narrowly beat liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski from the ruling party PO (Civic Coalition) in Poland’s presidential election runoff on June 1, winning 50.89 percent of the vote to 49.11 percent. The margin was razor-thin and within the margin of error in exit polls, reflecting deep polarisation in Polish society. Turnout was 71.6 percent.

The electoral map and demographic breakdowns reveal a deeply divided country, with each candidate drawing support from distinct regions and social groups. Nawrocki got the strongest support in rural areas and small towns, particularly in eastern and southeastern Poland which are traditionally conservative with strong PiS presence. Trzaskowski’s voters, on the other hand were strongest in urban centres, such as Warsaw, Wrocław and Gdańsk and other major cities especially in western and northern Poland, where are the strongholds of more liberal and pro-European voters.

CONCLUSIONS
Nawrocki will be sworn in as president on August 6. His victory most likely means a deep political crisis for the ruling coalition led by PM Donald Tusk. With the president holding veto power, a victory for Nawrocki is expected to make it more difficult for Tusk’s government to pass reforms, as overturning a presidential veto requires a 60% parliamentary majority which the ruling coalition does not have. Nawrocki announced during his campaign that he would like to bring the government down, so it is widely expected that he will block the legislation drafted by the government and try to introduce his own foreign policy, based on “special” relations with the US. and President Donald Trump. Nawrocki's presidency could hinder Tusk's reform program and efforts to align Poland more closely with the European Union. Areas of conflict may include social change, LGBTQ+ rights, and alignment with either Donald Trump or Donald Tusk's vision.

Nawrocki may also want to call snap parliamentary elections with the hope of a PiS victory, but it is not yet certain that this solution is worthwhile for either side. A change in power is likely in 2027 anyway as PiS and right-wing Kofederacja might be able to form a stable coalition government.

Want to understand how Nawrocki’s presidency could shape EU dynamics, transatlantic relations, or your organisation’s strategic positioning in the region? Contact our team in Warsaw for tailored insights and strategic counsel on navigating Poland’s evolving political landscape.