Our experts bring decades of valuable experience to advise clients on how to affect change at the highest level in the Polish market.

Our network and knowledge of the ever-changing political climate helps us navigate policy changes for our clients.

We create synergy between brand and business to improve relations with media and key stakeholders.

With roots in the Nordic countries and a global reach, our Warsaw office's mission is to help clients understand and influence the Polish and broader European political landscapes to achieve their business goals. Our team consists of experts with backgrounds in public administration, business, media, and diplomacy, combining local insights with the expertise of a larger international group. We specialise in three key sectors: Energy & Environment, Defense & Security, and Life Sciences & Agri-Food. Our team excels at helping clients navigate complex regulatory environments, offering services such as stakeholder mapping, policy monitoring, and strategic advisory to address evolving business challenges.

Acting as market navigators, we assist clients in grasping the nuances of Poland’s political and economic climate, and as hands-on advisors, we bring together multidisciplinary teams to meet client needs. Our comprehensive services range from risk analysis and competitor monitoring to communication planning, ensuring that our clients are well-positioned in their respective markets.

About the Warsaw office

Izabela Van den Bossche

Krzysztof Grad

Tomasz Rozek

Łukasz Chudy

Weronika Przecherska-Marchwińska

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**Rud Pedersen Public Affairs Poland**
[Senatorska 2, 00-075
Warsaw, Poland ](https://maps.app.goo.gl/CRLrcqQVRhgqgBZNA)

**Managing Partner:
Izabela Van den Bossche** [izabela@rudpedersen.com](mailto:izabela@rudpedersen.com)

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Karol Nawrocki backed by the key opposition party PiS (Law and Justice) narrowly beat liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski from the ruling party PO (Civic Coalition) in Poland’s presidential election runoff on June 1, winning 50.89 percent of the vote to 49.11 percent. The margin was razor-thin and within the margin of error in exit polls, reflecting deep polarisation in Polish society. Turnout was 71.6 percent.

The electoral map and demographic breakdowns reveal a deeply divided country, with each candidate drawing support from distinct regions and social groups. Nawrocki got the strongest support in rural areas and small towns, particularly in eastern and southeastern Poland which are traditionally conservative with strong PiS presence. Trzaskowski’s voters, on the other hand were strongest in urban centres, such as Warsaw, Wrocław and Gdańsk and other major cities especially in western and northern Poland, where are the strongholds of more liberal and pro-European voters. 

**CONCLUSIONS**
Nawrocki will be sworn in as president on August 6. His victory most likely means a deep political crisis for the ruling coalition led by PM Donald Tusk. With the president holding veto power, a victory for Nawrocki is expected to make it more difficult for Tusk’s government to pass reforms, as overturning a presidential veto requires a 60% parliamentary majority which the ruling coalition does not have. Nawrocki announced during his campaign that he would like to bring the government down, so it is widely expected that he will block the legislation drafted by the government and try to introduce his own foreign policy, based on “special” relations with the US. and President Donald Trump. Nawrocki's presidency could hinder Tusk's reform program and efforts to align Poland more closely with the European Union. Areas of conflict may include social change, LGBTQ+ rights, and alignment with either Donald Trump or Donald Tusk's vision.

Nawrocki may also want to call snap parliamentary elections with the hope of a PiS victory, but it is not yet certain that this solution is worthwhile for either side. A change in power is likely in 2027 anyway as PiS and right-wing Kofederacja might be able to form a stable coalition government. 

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Want to understand how Nawrocki’s presidency could shape EU dynamics, transatlantic relations, or your organisation’s strategic positioning in the region? [**Contact our team in Warsaw**](/rud-pedersen/en/locations/poland) for tailored insights and strategic counsel on navigating Poland’s evolving political landscape.

Political update: June 1 results from presidential election in Poland

**Strengthening EU defence capabilities**
During the Presidency, Poland is an advocate of an ambitious and multi-track approach to boost EU defence capabilities. These measures are both national and pan-European in scope and closely align with the new EU-wide initiatives such as the Readiness 2030 plan and the ReArm Europe package.

**Strengthening the European defence industry and infrastructure**
The priority is to support for the defence and dual-use infrastructure such as the EUR 2.5 bn Eastern Shield project (a key pillar of the European Defence White Paper - a fortification initiative along Poland’s eastern and northern borders) and the Baltic Defence Line (a planned joint defence line by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania along their borders with Russia and Belarus). Initial decisions on the financing of the Eastern Shield from EU funds have already been obtained and a preliminary agreement has been reached with the EIB for EUR 1 billion in financing. The Presidency aims also to conclude negotiations on the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) and foster a robust defence industrial base. 

**Enhanced cooperation between EU and NATO**
Poland’s presidency is strongly focused on reinforcing cooperation with NATO and like-minded non-EU countries, particularly the USA, the UK, and South Korea, to ensure complementarity and resilience in defence effort.
Poland aims to ensure that EU defence initiatives, such as PESCO and the European Defence Fund, complement and strengthen NATO's capabilities. Poland recognises that for NATO's guarantees to be credible, European defence initiatives should reinforce the alliance by improving the overall military capacity of European allies.

**Defence financing and industrial support**
Poland during its presidency is leading a debate on EU defence financing and supporting critical defence infrastructure, leveraging EU instruments to boost military mobility and defence industry competitiveness. Poland has convinced all EU leaders to support the ReArm Europe plan proposed by the European Commission. It provides for up to EUR 800 bn for military equipment, which will considerably increase the possibilities for upgrading and developing European defence capabilities. As requested, and emphasised by the Polish presidency, the European Commission has offered more flexible fiscal rules, thanks to which new defence spending will not be considered in the EU's excessive deficit procedure. 

**Border protection**
One of the key priorities of the Poland’s presidency is addressing challenges related to illegal migration and enhancing the security of the EU’s external borders through cooperation with international partners.

**Support for Ukraine**
Poland’s presidency is pushing the EU toward a firmer, more united, and comprehensive stance against Russia’s aggression, while actively supporting Ukraine’s defence, recovery, and integration into the EU. Poland during the presidency is a key power broker advocating for security and solidarity in the face of ongoing geopolitical challenges.

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Curious how Poland’s defence-forward EU Presidency could impact your organisation?
**[Contact our team in Warsaw](/rud-pedersen/en/locations/poland)** for tailored insights and strategic counsel.

Defence & Security priorities of the Polish EU Presidency

**Health priorities**
Our main goal during the Polish presidency is to place security and patient well-being at the centre of all activities.

**Children's and Youth's Mental Health**
An important area is the mental health of children and youth in the context of the development of digital technologies and social media. Poland aims to present recommendations and guidelines for member states in this area at the end of the presidency. In cooperation with the WHO, a report will be developed, which will thoroughly analyse the impact of technology on children's health.

**Digital Transformation of Healthcare**
The construction of regulatory and institutional architecture begins, new standards and e-health principles will be created in the European Union. Poland wants to include issues related to the cybersecurity of medical devices in hospital cybersecurity elements. The result will be further steps in the form of delegated acts and standards that will implement the EHDS architecture.

**Health Promotion and Disease Prevention**
The main tasks in this area are:
•	Assessing the effectiveness of actions in combating major health threats
•	Developing a catalog of best practices and proposals for activities
•	An integrated approach to prevention and education (including the promotion of interdisciplinary health education)

**Drug Security**
Drug security is not only a matter of revising pharmaceutical legislation. Therefore, during the first 100 days of the presidency, Poland wants to present the assumption for the Critical Medicines Act document.

The revision of pharmaceutical legislation aims to ensure innovation, competitiveness, and the development of the generic sector, while the Critical Medicines Act seeks to strengthen production capacity, secure critical active substances, and support drug production in the European Union, including in Poland, to ensure actual patient safety.

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How will the Polish EU Presidency shape the future of healthcare policy, digital transformation, and drug security? **[Reach out to our team in Warsaw](/rud-pedersen/en/locations/poland)** to unpack what these priorities mean for your organisation—and how to stay ahead in the evolving European health policy landscape.

Health security as part of the EU Polish Presidency

**Introduction: ‘Security, Europe!’**

The leading theme of the Polish Presidency is security, framed by its motto ‘Security, Europe!’ and defined in seven security pillars: defence and security, protection of people and borders, resistance to foreign interference and disinformation, ensuring security and freedom of business, energy transition, competitive and resilient agriculture, and health security.

The presidency plans to focus on coordinating regional efforts regarding a potential end to Russia's war with Ukraine. Economic priorities include industrial policy, simplifying EU regulations, enhancing the internal market, particularly in services, and debating the EU's resources to increase spending on competitiveness while maintaining cohesion and agricultural policies. Poland also emphasises the need for EU budget allocations for defence. It aims to finalise reforms in the pharmaceutical market and introduce new genomic techniques to the EU. Poland is sceptical about a trade agreement with Mercosur and does not expect decisions on ETS2 or concrete plans for the EU's financial framework beyond 2027.

**Details in selected areas**
- **Security:** the Polish Presidency will raise awareness of emerging threats and develop robust policies to address them, among others through increased military spending of member states and greater support for the European defence industry. This initiative is also seen as a step toward reducing reliance on U.S. support by bolstering Europe’s industrial capacity and military capabilities.
- **Climate and Environment:** During the Presidency, the Polish Ministry of Climate and Environment will lead two key councils: the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (TTE) and the Environment Council (ENVI). The TTE Council will focus on energy security, competitiveness, and support for Ukraine, while the ENVI Council will address climate security, adaptation to climate change, combating climate disinformation, and the Clean Industrial Deal. Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska aims to tackle issues affecting citizens, such as high energy prices and severe weather impacts while strengthening critical infrastructure resilience in member states. This includes addressing grid development and the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels. Additionally, the need for tools to combat misinformation that challenges EU energy and climate policies will be emphasized.
[Priorities of the Ministry of Climate and Environment during the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU - Ministry of Climate and Environment - Gov.pl website](https://www.gov.pl/web/climate/priorities-of-the-ministry-of-climate-and-environment-during-the-polish-presidency-of-the-council-of-the-eu)
- **Digitalisation:** The digital priorities of the Polish Presidency include cybersecurity, the development of artificial intelligence, and digital diplomacy. Poland's primary objective is to establish a comprehensive, cross-cutting approach to cybersecurity by updating the EU coordination framework for crisis situations in cyberspace (Cyber Blueprint) and strengthening cooperation between the civilian and military sectors.
[Digital priorities of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union](https://www.gov.pl/web/cyfryzacja/cyfrowe-priorytety-polskiej-prezydencji-w-radzie-unii-europejskiej)


**Events**
The official inauguration of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union took place on January 3 at the National Opera in Warsaw and on January 14 at the Royal Museum of Fine Arts in Brussels. The ceremonies were attended by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the President of the European Council, António Costa.

Throughout the Presidency, over 300 official meetings are planned in 24 Polish cities, including 22 informal sectoral council meetings in Warsaw. For a detailed programme of events, visit the official website: [Poland25.eu](https://polish-presidency.consilium.europa.eu/). 
https://polish-presidency.consilium.europa.eu/

**Selected conferences on presidency priorities:**
•	**January 30-31, Kraków, conference:** "The Impact of Cohesion Policy on the Achievement of EU Objectives".
•	**February 20-21, Gdańsk, conference:** "The Future of Work in Digital Europe".
•	**March 5, Warsaw:** "Common Agricultural Policy for Food Security".
•	**April 3-4, Bydgoszcz:** Conference on information security.
•	**April 8-9, Lublin:** Conference on the future of the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) after 2027.
•	**April 23-25, Katowice: **17th the European Economic Congress: “United for a safe future.”
•	**June 3-4, Gdynia:** Conference on the protection of maritime infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

Polish Presidency in a Snapshot

According to the National Electoral Commission, the ruling coalition of three parties, led by PM Donald Tusk, won with 51.1% in the local Polish elections this Sunday, but the key opposition party, PiS, won the most votes, with 34.27%. Tusk’s KO (CivicPlatform), the most powerful political group in the coalition, is in second place with 30.59% of votes. The Third Way (an alliance of agrarian party PSL and Poland 2050) gathers 14.25%. Right-wing Konfederacja won 7.23% and Lewica (New Left) 6.32%. 

Poles voted in elections for the local assemblies (sejmiki) in 16 administrative regions, local councils, and for mayors. 

According to the National Electoral Commission, KO won in nine regions while PiS won in seven (mainly in eastern Poland). However, this does not yet mean that parties will govern in these regions. That will be decided by the electoral coalitions. 

Compared to the previous local elections, KO gained two regions (it won seven assemblies in 2018) and PiS lost two (it won in nine then). 
The turnout rate of 52% was surprisingly low compared with almost 55% in the previous local elections in 2018 and the impressive 72% turnout rate in the parliamentary election in October 2023. This illustrates that only the core electorate of the parties went to the polls. 

Local elections were the first electoral test for Tusk's coalition government, nearly four months since they took power. The result clearly shows that PiS – a party which was ousted from power in last year’s parliamentary elections, remains a huge challenge for his coalition.

PM Tusk expected to achieve a much better result and defeat PiS, even though KO scored 1.2 points better than in October’s election. KO is also proud of the overwhelming victory in some major cities - Warsaw, Łódź, Gdańsk and Szczecin (candidates won in their first round) and winning in most of the other major cities. Rafał Trzaskowski’s win in the first round in Warsaw with nearly 60% of the vote increases his chances of running in the 2025 presidential election as KO candidate. 

Tusk admitted on election night that the road to defeating PiS would not be easy, especially considering the upcoming European elections in June and the presidential elections in 2025. 

**CONCLUSIONS**
The results of the local elections are a reflection of the latest parliamentary elections in October, with fairly similar results. The ruling coalition has won most of votes, but the PiS result came as a surprise given the numerous scandals in which the previous government was implicated, and which are extensively covered by the media. It is a warning sign for the coalition ahead of the European elections. The situation may be even more difficult bearing in mind the disappointing result of Lewica (New Left), which is one of 3 partners in the coalition. There are rumours that their position in the government needs to be revised (rumours come mostly from Third Way sources). The alliance is increasingly confrontational in its actions, mainly towards the New Left, which may have an impact on the future of the coalition.

Political update: April 7 results from local elections in Poland

The most relevant topic for us in RPPA PL is the upcoming parliamentary elections in October. It would also be a kick-off for the so-called political marathon in Poland (local and EP elections in 2024 and presidential elections in 2025). The situation is fairly unstable, with the ruling party and the largest opposition party enjoying similar levels of support in the opinion polls, and we already know that neither of them can secure a majority in the next parliament and rule on their own. The need for a coalition government means even more instability following the elections due to the radicalization of the political environment in Poland. Whatever coalition is finally formed, it does not bode well for a stable political future. And this will obviously have impact on the business environment.  

Regardless of the result, we believe it creates more opportunities since companies will need to understand how the political agendas of the new government affect their business. With insightful political intelligence, we feel we could help them navigate across the Polish political landscape as it is being reshaped.

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