What does the Trump comeback mean for Ukraine?

Biden’s European construct after winning the 2020 election was to shore up and renew trust in US-German relations, as the cornerstone of a broader US-European policy. In early 2021, Biden lifted sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to show that Washington was serious about a new partnership with Berlin and stabilizing relations with Moscow. Part of that construct was to “park relations with Russia,” and use it as an economic stick against Putin from becoming more belligerent and dangerous.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in the US and Germany cutting-off economic ties with Russia and led to a western sanctions blockade isolating Russia. Germany became the European leader in the supply of arms to Ukraine and also became the EU leader to shore up political and economic support for Ukraine. Biden’s and Scholz’s approach to Ukraine are very similarly cautious and both coordinate steps against Putin closely.

With Biden exiting and Scholz sinking politically, Ukraine’s power backers are now in transition. While Kyiv is on the EU membership trajectory, has good relations with the UK and the Nordics, the US-German relationship that helped Ukraine is now in limbo. It’s not clear if Trump will continue Biden’s construct with Germany, as he likes to go it alone. Scholz faces an election he will lose to the CDU, who’s rhetoric is more pro-Ukrainian.

Official Kyiv faces a winter of policy ambiguity, which it needs to transition through, and in the spring of 2025, international power politics will become clearer. Moscow will use this ambiguity to continue destroying more Ukrainian cities, bombing civilian infrastructure and militarily capturing more territory. Changes are certainly on the horizon.

What does this mean for Ukraine’s PR-communications effort:

1. Ukraine’s narrative will have to transition from “return to 1991 borders,” to a more politically sellable position about what victory looks like that works first and foremost domestically and then internationally.

2. Zelensky’s “peace plan” positioning will focus more on peace than war. Daily media photos of civilian casualties and destruction during the winter will keep western leaders on their toes and remain a call to action.

3. Ukraine will need to educate the Trump leadership in the White House and on Capitol Hill of the nuances and benefits of supporting Ukraine in the long-term, as a guarantee for peace in Europe and the Black Sea region.

4. Official Kyiv will certainly make changes to its main interlocutors-communicators in Washington and New York to present a fresh start with the second Trump Administration.

5. Official Kyiv will suggest Trump move from granting aid to Ukraine to using the lend-lease legislation passed in 2022, that would allow Ukraine to purchase US-manufactured equipment for the defense effort against Russia, which creates jobs in the US and supplies Ukraine’s defense posture.